- December 31, 202682.0%
- December 15, 202682.0%
- November 30, 202660.5%
- November 25, 202652.5%
- November 20, 202627.0%
Permanent board
AI Wars
Who’s ahead in foundation models and coding agents, tracked across several signals that often diverge. Desk ranks for US and international labs sit above Arena preference, OpenRouter volume, Reddit heat for coding tools, lab GitHub stars, App Store Productivity ranks, public changelog velocity, and longer-horizon Polymarket odds.
Scroll the charts for history. Open a lab card for the full analysis, or jump to the write-ups collected at the bottom of the page.
Current state
Desk ranking of who holds the field right now, split by US and international labs. Order is positioning + heat (0 to 100). Green dot means primary models are open-weight / self-hostable; red means primary models are closed (side experiments don’t count). Click a company for the full analysis, also listed below under Desk analyses.
United States
UpdatedFrontier labs + the coding products riding them.
Positioning over time0 to 100
Hover for values · click legend to hide a series
OpenAI+1
Read analysisGPT-6 Astra, Sol, and Luna are in a private preview on Google Cloud, with general availability planned in the coming weeks. Microsoft remains the primary cloud partner.
Positioning98Heat92Anthropic+1
Read analysisClaude Duet, a proactive agent for professionals and small businesses, opened Oct. 21 as a waitlisted research preview for US Pro and Max subscribers.
Positioning97Heat92Google+3
Read analysisGoogle Cloud is offering GPT-6 Astra, Sol, and Luna in Model Garden, and says it is the only hyperscaler with all three leading closed models.
Positioning83Heat85Meta-2
Read analysisClaude Duet entered the proactive-agent category Muse opened. Meta did not publish a new Muse adoption figure this week.
Positioning86Heat80SpaceX-1
Read analysisThe week's agent and cloud headlines landed at Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google. xAI did not ship a new Grok product.
Positioning69Heat71Microsoft-2
Read analysisOpenAI models are entering Google Cloud. OpenAI says Microsoft remains its primary cloud partner.
Positioning50Heat58
International
UpdatedUsage and open-weight pressure from outside the US.
Positioning over time0 to 100
Hover for values · click legend to hide a series
DeepSeek-3
Read analysisDHS published an order removing DeepSeek from federal civilian systems, and DeepSeek open-sourced its DeepInfer engine the same week.
Positioning88Heat86Z.ai-1
Read analysisGLM-5.3, released in August, is still the Z.ai flagship. No new model shipped this week.
Positioning65Heat59Xiaomi-1
Read analysisMiMo-V2.6, released Sept. 21, is still the Xiaomi flagship. No new MiMo shipped this week.
Positioning63Heat47Tencent-1
Read analysisHy4 is still the August preview. No full Hy4 release shipped this week.
Positioning57Heat44MiniMax+7
Read analysisM3.1 Flash is on the API at $0.15 and $0.60 per million tokens. A Plotly exam tied frontier models, and a separate check found a high hallucination rate.
Positioning47Heat51Moonshot-1
Read analysisKimi K3, launched in July, is still the flagship. No K3 successor shipped this week.
Positioning41Heat36
Coding agents
Subreddit weekly visitors as a community-heat proxy, tracked from July 2026. Sparklines use a scale per tool. The chart below them adds subreddits for the same product and plots every line on one log scale. A combined line starts once every subreddit in that product is being tracked.
Share of weekly visitors
Proportional to latest snapshot · Oct 24, 2026
Weekly visitors over time
Each sparkline uses its own scale so mid-pack moves stay readable. Hover to read any week. Pills are latest week-over-week change.
- 993K+61K
- 486K−57K
- 152K+7K
- 141K
- 139K+15K
- 90K−4K
- 75K−15K
- 74K−16K
- 62K−3K
- 37K+8K
- 35K+7K
- 26K
- 7.4K−400
- 4.2K−300
- 1.3K
Desk-tracked estimates. Heat signal only, not seats or revenue.
Weekly visitors, combined
Log scale. A combined line starts the first week every subreddit in the group has a reading. Codex adds r/CodexAI and r/OpenAICodex. OpenCode adds r/opencode and r/opencodeCLI. Antigravity adds r/google_antigravity and r/antigravitygoogle. Windsurf adds r/Windsurf and r/devinai.
Hover for values · click legend to hide a series
Desk-tracked Reddit weekly visitors. Codex, OpenCode, Antigravity, and Windsurf each sum their subreddits from the week all of them are tracked.
Weekly visitor share
One hundred percent of tracked weekly visitors, stacked from the smallest share at the bottom to the largest at the top. Bands trade places when one passes another. Codex, OpenCode, Antigravity, and Windsurf use the same sums as the chart above.
Hover for a week · click legend to hide a series
Stacked from the smallest share at the bottom to the largest at the top. A band switches place when its share passes another. History waits for every subreddit that opened at 50k or more. Smaller additions stay in the total without resetting the line.
Lab repos
Flagship GitHub projects from the tracked labs · Oct 26, 6:26 AM
App Store rank tape
US free Productivity chart for the main AI consumer apps — a consumer-heat signal that often diverges from Arena and API volume.
US App Store · Productivity
Free iPhone Productivity chart · Oct 26, 2026
Productivity rank tape
Inverse rank score · US free Productivity chart
Hover for values · click legend to hide a series
Daily snapshots. Score = 101 − chart rank (higher is better). Outside the top 100 drops off.
Changelog velocity
How often labs publish — scraped from public RSS feeds and news sitemaps (Anthropic, xAI, and others). A shipping/comms proxy, not a quality score.
Posts per week
4-week rolling average · last 36 complete weeks
Hover for values · click legend to hide a series
Latest headlines
Most recent item per lab · through Oct 23, 2026
- Open Call Guest Investigators Life SciencesAnthropicOct 22
- Mistral Advances AI for Engineering with NVIDIAMistralOct 21
- Beyond tree cover: mapping the world’s forest typesDeepMindOct 22
- Grok Voice Think Fast 2xAIJul 29
Comms / shipping proxy — OpenAI & Anthropic newsrooms are louder than Cursor's product changelog. Not weighted by importance. Lines are curved because the value is a 4-week mean, not a weekly reading, and each starts once its source covers a full window rather than reading as zero.
Prediction markets
Longer-horizon AI odds from Polymarket. Skips markets resolving within ~10 days · as of Oct 26, 2026.
- 156037.5%
- 158019.5%
- 16006.3%
- US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?15.5%
- Anthropic94.7%
- OpenAI5.3%
- ↑$1.5T86.5%
- ↑$1.75T77.5%
- ↑$2.0T59.5%
- ↑$2.25T34.5%
- ↑$2.5T26.5%
- 60%+28.5%
- 65%+13.5%
- 70%+8.5%
- 75%+6.1%
OpenRouter volume
Daily tokens · Jul 27–Oct 24
Hover for values · click legend to hide a series
OpenRouter rankings-daily. Prompt + completion tokens for the public top 50 each day.
Provider share
% of OpenRouter tokens · Jul 27–Oct 24
Hover for values · click legend to hide a series
Share of daily OpenRouter token volume by provider.
Arena Elo
Weekly snapshots · current top models
Hover for values · click legend to hide a series
Weekly Arena text-leaderboard snapshots.
Live boards
Preference and API volume measure different races.
Arena Elo
Human preference · text
- gemini-4-argon-high1525
- claude-opus-4-6-high1505
- claude-fable-5-high1504
- claude-opus-5.5-high1504
- claude-opus-4-7-high1501
- claude-fable-5.1-max1501
- claude-opus-4-61497
- gemini-3.8-flash-high1495
OpenRouter
API tokens · Oct 25
- deepseek-v4.1-flash5.77T
- glm-5.3-flash2.12T
- deepseek-v4.1-flash1.91T
- gpt-6-luna1.46T
- hy4974B
- claude-opus-5.5831B
- step-5801B
- nemotron-3-ultra-550b-a55b660B
Research on Perplexity
Board-shaped queries with cited answers. Opens on Perplexity.
Desk analyses
Full write-ups behind each company score, kept on the page for easy reading. Ranked by positioning + heat within region.
United States
#1 · San Francisco · positioning 98 · heat 92 · closed weight
OpenAI
GPT-6 Astra, Sol, and Luna are in a private preview on Google Cloud, with general availability planned in the coming weeks. Microsoft remains the primary cloud partner.
Why the score moved
Positioning moves from 97 to 98, and heat from 93 to 92. Positioning here is OpenAI’s strategic seat: frontier models plus where customers can buy them. A chart point dated Oct. 19 repeated the Oct. 18 score and has been removed, so this comparison starts at Oct. 18.
The case for a raise is distribution. On Oct. 21 OpenAI said GPT-6 Astra, GPT-6.1 Sol, and GPT-6 Luna, and Codex agent workflows, are coming to Google Cloud’s Model Garden, bought through Google Cloud Marketplace and drawable against Google Cloud commitments 1. Google said those three models are in private preview for selected enterprise customers, that Codex CLI and Desktop can use the Gemini platform for inference, and that OpenAI models are planned later for Google Antigravity and the Gemini Agent 2. On Oct. 22 OpenAI also made the Decisions API generally available, built on GPT-6 Luna, and said it can answer bounded questions up to 10 times faster than Luna through the Responses API 3.
The deal is not generally available. OpenAI says that step is “in the coming weeks,” and that Microsoft remains the primary cloud partner 1. The preview is invite-only 1. On the coding board, r/CodexAI weekly visitors fell from 543,000 on Oct. 18 to 486,000 on Oct. 24, and r/OpenAICodex fell from 90,000 to 74,000 4. That is a smaller Codex community in the same week the headlines were about a cloud channel.
One point of positioning, not three: a second hyperscaler is a seat change, and a private preview with Azure still primary is not a finished shift. Heat moves down one point because the Codex communities shrank while the new product, the Decisions API, is a developer tool rather than a consumer launch.
- NewsOpenAI on Google Cloud
OpenAI Oct. 21 announcement: Model Garden, Marketplace billing, general availability in the coming weeks, Microsoft still the primary cloud partner.
- NewsGoogle Cloud brings OpenAI models
Google Oct. 21 post naming Astra, Sol, and Luna in private preview, Codex on the Gemini platform, and later plans for Antigravity and Gemini Agent.
- VendorDecisions API
OpenAI Oct. 22 post making the Decisions API generally available on GPT-6 Luna.
- DataCoding-agent weekly visitors
Desk-tracked Reddit weekly visitors for r/CodexAI and r/OpenAICodex on Oct. 18 and Oct. 24.
Signals: On Oct. 21 OpenAI and Google Cloud put GPT-6 Astra, GPT-6.1 Sol, and GPT-6 Luna, plus Codex workflows, into Model Garden as an invite-only preview. Purchases go through Google Cloud Marketplace and can draw down existing Google Cloud commitments. General availability is planned in the coming weeks, and OpenAI says Microsoft is still the primary cloud partner.
Signals: The same week OpenAI made the Decisions API generally available on GPT-6 Luna for bounded decisions, and said it can be up to 10 times faster than calling Luna through the Responses API. That is a developer product, not a new consumer agent.
Signals: Positioning 97 to 98 because a second hyperscaler channel is a real seat change even before general availability. Heat 93 to 92 because r/CodexAI weekly visitors fell from 543,000 on Oct. 18 to 486,000 on Oct. 24, and r/OpenAICodex fell from 90,000 to 74,000. Closed weights. Competitive pressure is Claude Duet on the proactive-agent side, which this deal does not answer.
#2 · San Francisco · positioning 97 · heat 92 · closed weight
Anthropic
Claude Duet, a proactive agent for professionals and small businesses, opened Oct. 21 as a waitlisted research preview for US Pro and Max subscribers.
Why the score moved
Positioning moves from 96 to 97, and heat from 89 to 92. Positioning here is Anthropic's seat in models and in agents that act without waiting for a chat. A chart point dated Oct. 19 repeated the Oct. 18 score and has been removed, so this comparison starts at Oct. 18.
The case for a raise is Claude Duet. On Oct. 21 Anthropic opened a research preview of a proactive agent for professionals and small businesses: a morning brief, checks on connected apps, and tasks from scheduling to dashboards, forecasts, and web apps, on Claude Opus 5.5, with its own iOS and Android apps and claude.ai 1. The Verge reported it as Anthropic's answer to Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots, with a virtual machine and a browser, and approval before a payment or a deletion 2. CNBC described the same preview and said Muse and Dots have already shown user traction 3.
The limits are in Anthropic's own post. Duet is an early version that might misread a thread or misjudge what is urgent, personal errands are weaker, and the preview is a waitlist for Pro and Max users in the US, on the same usage limits as the rest of Claude 1. There is no download figure. r/ClaudeAI weekly visitors rose from 932,000 on Oct. 18 to 993,000 on Oct. 24 4, which fits a hotter week and is not evidence that Duet itself has a consumer base yet.
One point of positioning, not four: shipping into the category is a seat change, and a US waitlist with no adoption number is not a Muse-scale breakout. Heat rises three points because Duet was the product story of the week, and it does not rise further while access is still a waitlist.
- VendorIntroducing Claude Duet
Anthropic Oct. 21 research-preview post: what Duet does, the US Pro and Max waitlist, and the early-version limits.
- NewsThe Verge on Claude Duet
The Verge Oct. 21 report framing Duet as the answer to Muse and Dots, including the browser VM and approval step.
- NewsCNBC on Claude Duet
CNBC Oct. 21 report on the preview and on traction already shown by Muse and Dots.
- DataCoding-agent weekly visitors
Desk-tracked Reddit weekly visitors for r/ClaudeAI on Oct. 18 and Oct. 24.
Signals: On Oct. 21 Anthropic opened Claude Duet, a proactive agent that sends a morning brief, watches connected apps, and does tasks from scheduling to forecasts and web apps. It runs on Claude Opus 5.5, with iOS, Android, and claude.ai apps, and it asks before payments or deletions. Access is a waitlist for Pro and Max subscribers in the US.
Signals: Anthropic calls this an early version that can misread a thread or misjudge what is urgent, and says personal errands such as booking tickets are weaker. Duet shares the plan usage limits, is not on Team or Enterprise yet, and the user cannot watch its browser.
Signals: Positioning 96 to 97 because Anthropic is now in the same proactive-agent category as Muse and Dots, not because Duet has a download number. Heat 89 to 92 because it was the week most-covered product. Closed weights. r/ClaudeAI weekly visitors rose from 932,000 to 993,000, which supports heat and does not by itself justify a larger positioning jump.
#3 · Mountain View · positioning 83 · heat 85 · closed weight
Google Cloud is offering GPT-6 Astra, Sol, and Luna in Model Garden, and says it is the only hyperscaler with all three leading closed models.
Why the score moved
Positioning moves from 80 to 83, and heat from 82 to 85. Positioning here is Google's seat as a model maker and as the cloud where other labs' models can be bought. A chart point dated Oct. 19 repeated the Oct. 18 score and has been removed, so this comparison starts at Oct. 18.
The case for a raise is the Oct. 21 cloud deal. Google said it is launching OpenAI models in Model Garden, that GPT-6 Astra, GPT-6.1 Sol, and GPT-6 Luna are in private preview for selected enterprise customers, and that Google Cloud is now the only hyperscaler offering all three leading closed models 1. Customers can bill through Google Cloud Marketplace and draw down existing commitments, and Codex CLI and Desktop can connect to the Gemini platform for inference 1. OpenAI confirmed the partnership, Marketplace purchasing, and a later path into Google Antigravity and the Gemini Agent 2.
This is not a new Gemini. Argon was already the prior desk's story. The preview is invite-only, general availability is "in the coming weeks," and OpenAI says Microsoft remains its primary cloud partner 2. Google is hosting a rival's models, which is a choice story for customers and not proof that Gemini won the week.
Three points of positioning, not six: becoming the cloud that sells all three closed frontiers is a seat change, and a private preview is not a finished channel. Heat rises three points because the announcement was one of the week's main stories. It does not rise with Claude Duet, which was the louder product launch and is not Google's.
- NewsGoogle Cloud brings OpenAI models
Google Oct. 21 post: Model Garden preview, the only hyperscaler with all three closed frontiers, Marketplace billing, Codex on the Gemini platform.
- NewsOpenAI on Google Cloud
OpenAI Oct. 21 post confirming Model Garden, later Antigravity and Gemini Agent plans, and Microsoft as primary partner.
Signals: On Oct. 21 Google Cloud launched OpenAI models in Model Garden. GPT-6 Astra, GPT-6.1 Sol, and GPT-6 Luna are in private preview. Google says it is now the only hyperscale cloud offering all three leading closed models, with billing through Google Cloud Marketplace against existing commitments.
Signals: Codex CLI and Desktop can connect to the Gemini platform for inference. OpenAI models are planned later for Google Antigravity and the Gemini Agent. General availability is still coming weeks, and Microsoft remains OpenAI primary cloud partner.
Signals: Positioning 80 to 83 and heat 82 to 85 because this week Google gained a distribution story, not a new Gemini model. Gemini 4 Argon was already the prior desk. Closed weights. Google passes Meta on the combined score this week because Muse had no new adoption figure while this cloud deal did.
#4 · Menlo Park · positioning 86 · heat 80 · closed weight
Meta
Claude Duet entered the proactive-agent category Muse opened. Meta did not publish a new Muse adoption figure this week.
Why the score moved
Positioning moves from 88 to 86, and heat from 83 to 80. Positioning here is Meta's seat in the proactive-agent category Muse opened. A chart point dated Oct. 19 repeated the Oct. 18 score and has been removed, so this comparison starts at Oct. 18.
The case for a cut is that the category now has a third frontier-lab product. On Oct. 21 Anthropic opened Claude Duet, and The Verge described it as the agent taking on Muse and OpenAI's Dots 1. CNBC used the same frame and added that Muse and Dots have already started to show user traction 2. Meta did not publish a new Muse download, retention, or rank figure this week. The open-weight Muse Spark release and the 10 million download note were already in the Oct. 18 score.
The counterweight is that Duet is a waitlist, not a replacement. Anthropic limited the preview to US Pro and Max subscribers and warned that the early version can misread what is urgent 1. CNBC's line that Muse has shown traction is a reason not to treat the category as lost 2. r/MuseAgent weekly visitors rose from 28,000 on Oct. 18 to 35,000 on Oct. 24 3, a small community, still up.
Two points of positioning, not five: Muse is no longer alone, and it still has the adoption the new preview does not. Heat falls three points because the week's agent headlines belonged to Duet. The visitor uptick is why the cut is not larger.
- NewsThe Verge on Claude Duet
The Verge Oct. 21 report that frames Duet as Anthropic taking on Muse and Dots.
- NewsCNBC on Claude Duet
CNBC Oct. 21 report on the preview, including its line that Muse and Dots have shown user traction.
- DataCoding-agent weekly visitors
Desk-tracked Reddit weekly visitors for r/MuseAgent on Oct. 18 and Oct. 24.
Signals: On Oct. 21 Anthropic opened Claude Duet as a proactive agent aimed at the same job as Meta Muse and OpenAI Dots. The Verge and CNBC both framed it that way. CNBC also said Muse and Dots have already shown user traction.
Signals: Duet is a US Pro and Max waitlist, not a measured download wave. Meta did not ship a new Muse number this week. The prior desk already counted Muse Spark open weights and the analyst note on 10 million downloads.
Signals: Positioning 88 to 86 because Muse is no longer the only shipped proactive agent from a frontier lab. Heat 83 to 80 because the week product story was Duet, not a Muse update. Closed weights. r/MuseAgent weekly visitors rose from 28,000 to 35,000, which is why the heat cut stays small.
#5 · Hawthorne · positioning 69 · heat 71 · closed weight
SpaceX
The week's agent and cloud headlines landed at Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google. xAI did not ship a new Grok product.
Why the score moved
Positioning moves from 70 to 69, and heat from 76 to 71. Positioning here is xAI's seat in models and in the products that carry Grok. A chart point dated Oct. 19 repeated the Oct. 18 score and has been removed, so this comparison starts at Oct. 18.
There is no new Grok launch to score. The week's agent story was Claude Duet. The Verge reported it on Oct. 21 as Anthropic's proactive agent taking on Muse and OpenAI's Dots 1. The week's distribution story was OpenAI's models entering Google Cloud's Model Garden, which OpenAI announced the same day 2. xAI was not one of those announcements. Grok Voice 3.0 was already in the Oct. 18 score.
The counterweight is the community, not a product. r/GrokBot weekly visitors rose from 29,000 on Oct. 18 to 37,000 on Oct. 24 3. That is up, and it is still a small board next to Claude Code or Codex. A rising small subreddit is not a reason to keep last week's heat when the wire moved elsewhere.
One point of positioning, and five of heat: the seat did not collapse, and the near-term story did cool. Heat does not fall further because the Grok community grew. It does not hold at 76, because that number belonged to a week with a Grok product and this week did not have one.
- NewsThe Verge on Claude Duet
The Verge Oct. 21 report on the week main agent launch, which was Anthropic Duet rather than a Grok product.
- NewsOpenAI on Google Cloud
OpenAI Oct. 21 distribution announcement, the other major story of the week, with no xAI role.
- DataCoding-agent weekly visitors
Desk-tracked Reddit weekly visitors for r/GrokBot on Oct. 18 and Oct. 24.
Signals: The week product story was Claude Duet, Anthropic proactive agent aimed at Muse and Dots. The week distribution story was OpenAI models entering Google Cloud. Neither was an xAI launch.
Signals: r/GrokBot weekly visitors rose from 29,000 on Oct. 18 to 37,000 on Oct. 24. That is a larger community than the week before, and it is still a small share of the coding-agent board.
Signals: Positioning 70 to 69 and heat 76 to 71. Closed weights. Grok Voice 3.0 was already the prior desk. A quiet product week does not justify holding last week heat while Duet and the cloud deal took the tape.
#6 · Redmond · positioning 50 · heat 58 · closed weight
Microsoft
OpenAI models are entering Google Cloud. OpenAI says Microsoft remains its primary cloud partner.
Why the score moved
Positioning moves from 52 to 50, and heat from 62 to 58. Positioning here is Microsoft's seat as OpenAI's main cloud, not as the owner of a frontier model in market. A chart point dated Oct. 19 repeated the Oct. 18 score and has been removed, so this comparison starts at Oct. 18.
The case for a cut is the new channel. On Oct. 21 OpenAI said its frontier models and Codex workflows are coming to Google Cloud's Model Garden, purchased through Google Cloud Marketplace 1. Google said it is now the only hyperscaler offering all three leading closed models, and that OpenAI usage can draw down Google Cloud commitments 2. A customer can now plan to buy OpenAI on Google's bill. That is a weaker exclusive than the week before.
The limit is in OpenAI's own sentence: Microsoft remains the primary cloud partner 1. The Google preview is invite-only, and general availability is still "in the coming weeks" 1. This desk does not treat a private preview as a moved install base, and it does not score Azure Maia, a chip story aimed at 2027, as this week's product.
Two points of positioning, not six: exclusivity cracked, and the primary-partner line is still there. Heat falls four points because the distribution headline of the week named Google as the new counter, not a Microsoft launch.
- NewsOpenAI on Google Cloud
OpenAI Oct. 21 post: models and Codex on Google Cloud, and the line that Microsoft remains the primary cloud partner.
- NewsGoogle Cloud brings OpenAI models
Google Oct. 21 post claiming it is the only hyperscaler with all three leading closed models, billed against Google Cloud commitments.
Signals: On Oct. 21 OpenAI said its frontier models and Codex workflows are coming to Google Cloud Model Garden, with general availability planned in the coming weeks. The same post says Microsoft remains OpenAI primary cloud partner.
Signals: Google said it is now the only hyperscaler offering all three leading closed models, and that OpenAI models can draw down Google Cloud commitments. That is a second channel, not a statement that Azure lost the primary role.
Signals: Positioning 52 to 50 and heat 62 to 58. Closed weights. The cut is the crack in exclusivity. It is not larger because OpenAI still names Microsoft as primary, and because a private preview is not a migrated customer base.
International
#1 · Hangzhou · positioning 88 · heat 86 · open weight
DeepSeek
DHS published an order removing DeepSeek from federal civilian systems, and DeepSeek open-sourced its DeepInfer engine the same week.
Why the score moved
Positioning moves from 91 to 88, and heat from 81 to 86. Positioning here is DeepSeek seat as the leading open-weight lab, including where governments and companies can deploy it. A chart point dated Oct. 19 repeated the Oct. 18 score and has been removed, so this comparison starts at Oct. 18.
The case for a cut is the federal order. On Oct. 20 the Department of Homeland Security published a notice excluding DeepSeek products and services from federal civilian procurements and removing them from civilian agency IT, including third-party products developed using DeepSeek 1. CNBC reported that the order, signed in July and made public that Monday, covers civilian agencies such as Treasury, State, and Justice, includes products built with the models, and does not cover the Defense Department 2. China foreign ministry objected 2. This is a closed government channel, not a ban on private use.
The case against a larger cut is the engine DeepSeek shipped beside the order. On Oct. 20 it open-sourced DeepInfer, the inference framework behind its API, under Apache 2.0, with support for Nvidia SM100 GPUs and Huawei Ascend 950 NPUs 3. The New Stack reported that the release is meant to let others run V4.1 Flash with DeepSeek own serving stack, and that it is not a complete production system by itself 4. V4.1 Flash was already the prior desk model. The new fact is the serving code.
Three points of positioning, not eight: federal civilian buyers and their vendors have to remove DeepSeek, and private and open-weight use is untouched. Heat rises five points because those two stories, the order and the open engine, were the international tape. A reported 15 billion dollar round is not in this score. One outlet had it, and DeepSeek has not confirmed it.
- NewsFederal Register DeepSeek order
Oct. 20 Federal Register notice of the DHS order excluding and removing DeepSeek from federal civilian IT and procurements, including third-party products.
- NewsCNBC on the DeepSeek order
CNBC Oct. 20 report: civilian agencies, third-party products, Defense Department excluded, and the China objection.
- NewsTechTarget on DeepInfer
TechTarget Oct. 20 report that DeepSeek open-sourced DeepInfer for Nvidia and Huawei Ascend.
- NewsThe New Stack on DeepInfer
The New Stack Oct. 20 report on the Apache 2.0 release and what the stack does and does not include.
Signals: On Oct. 20 DHS published an order excluding DeepSeek products from federal civilian procurements and removing them, including third-party products built on DeepSeek, from civilian agency IT. CNBC reported the order was signed in July and made public Monday, covers civilian agencies, and excludes the Defense Department.
Signals: The same week DeepSeek open-sourced DeepInfer, the inference stack behind its API, under Apache 2.0, with Nvidia and Huawei Ascend support. TechTarget and The New Stack both reported the release. The company described it as the production stack for V4.1 Flash.
Signals: Positioning 91 to 88 because a federal civilian channel, including contractors and third-party products, is now closed. Heat 81 to 86 because the ban and the open engine were the week international story. Open weights. The order is not a ban on private US use, which is why the positioning cut is three points rather than a collapse.
#2 · Beijing · positioning 65 · heat 59 · open weight
Z.ai
GLM-5.3, released in August, is still the Z.ai flagship. No new model shipped this week.
Why the score moved
Positioning moves from 66 to 65, and heat from 64 to 59. Positioning here is Z.ai seat among open-weight Chinese labs. A chart point dated Oct. 19 repeated the Oct. 18 score and has been removed, so this comparison starts at Oct. 18.
There was no Z.ai launch to raise. The AsiaAI tracker still lists GLM-5.3, released Aug. 14, as the flagship, with the smaller GLM-5.3 Flash beside it, and it does not record a later model 1. The Oct. 18 desk already said a faster GLM-5.3 tier had opened to some subscribers and that GLM 5.5 had not shipped. That is still the state of the record.
The week tape went elsewhere. MiniMax put M3.1 Flash on the API on Oct. 19 at 0.15 dollars per million input tokens and 0.60 dollars per million output tokens 2. DeepSeek spent the same days in a US federal removal order and an open inference release. Z.ai was not the subject of either story.
One point of positioning, not a cut into the pack below: GLM-5.3 is still a real flagship, which is why Z.ai stays ahead of Xiaomi. Heat falls five points because a week with no release should not keep last week momentum while MiniMax and DeepSeek took the international headlines.
- DataChina frontier models tracker
Tracker listing GLM-5.3 as the Z.ai flagship, released Aug. 14, 2026, with no later flagship recorded.
- VendorMiniMax M3.1 Flash
MiniMax Oct. 19 rollout, the international product launch Z.ai did not match this week.
Signals: The AsiaAI China frontier tracker still lists GLM-5.3, released Aug. 14, as the Z.ai flagship, with GLM-5.3 Flash as the smaller MIT sibling. It does not record a model after that.
Signals: The week international product story was MiniMax M3.1 Flash, priced at 0.15 and 0.60 dollars per million tokens, with an independent exam and a serious hallucination finding. Z.ai was not in that launch.
Signals: Positioning 66 to 65 and heat 64 to 59. Open weights. The seat barely moves because August GLM-5.3 is still a current flagship. Heat falls because the tape moved to DeepSeek and MiniMax.
#3 · Beijing · positioning 63 · heat 47 · open weight
Xiaomi
MiMo-V2.6, released Sept. 21, is still the Xiaomi flagship. No new MiMo shipped this week.
Why the score moved
Positioning moves from 64 to 63, and heat from 50 to 47. Positioning here is Xiaomi seat as an open-weight model lab. A chart point dated Oct. 19 repeated the Oct. 18 score and has been removed, so this comparison starts at Oct. 18.
No new MiMo shipped. The AsiaAI tracker still lists MiMo-V2.6 Pro and Flash, released Sept. 21 under MIT, as the flagship 1. The Oct. 18 desk already said a rumored next version was not confirmed. That remains true.
The counter-story is what did ship. MiniMax rolled out M3.1 Flash on Oct. 19 at a public token price 2. Xiaomi was not part of that release, and it was not part of the DeepSeek federal-order story. A quiet flagship can hold a seat. It does not hold last week heat.
One point of positioning: V2.6 is still current, so Xiaomi stays just behind Z.ai and well ahead of MiniMax. Heat falls three points, not eight, because there is no negative Xiaomi event, only an absence.
- DataChina frontier models tracker
Tracker listing MiMo-V2.6 as the Xiaomi flagship, released Sept. 21, 2026.
- VendorMiniMax M3.1 Flash
MiniMax Oct. 19 rollout, the week model release Xiaomi did not match.
Signals: The AsiaAI tracker lists MiMo-V2.6 Pro and Flash, released Sept. 21 under an MIT license, as the Xiaomi flagship. It does not record an October model.
Signals: MiniMax M3.1 Flash shipped Oct. 19 with a public price and an outside exam. Xiaomi did not have an equivalent release.
Signals: Positioning 64 to 63 and heat 50 to 47. Open weights. The model seat is intact. Heat eases because the week story was not MiMo.
#4 · Shenzhen · positioning 57 · heat 44 · open weight
Tencent
Hy4 is still the August preview. No full Hy4 release shipped this week.
Why the score moved
Positioning moves from 58 to 57, and heat from 47 to 44. Positioning here is Tencent seat in open models and in the products that ship them. A chart point dated Oct. 19 repeated the Oct. 18 score and has been removed, so this comparison starts at Oct. 18.
Hy4 is still a preview. The AsiaAI tracker lists Hy3 as a July 6 release and Hy4 preview as an Aug. 28 release, and its watch item is whether the full Hy4 ships 1. It did not ship this week. The plan to shut the Yuanqi agent platform was already in the Oct. 18 score. This desk does not count that fact a second time.
The week model news was elsewhere. MiniMax rolled out M3.1 Flash on Oct. 19 2. DeepSeek published a federal removal order and an open inference engine. Tencent was not the subject of those stories.
One point of positioning: a preview that is still a preview does not lose the seat it already had, and it does not gain one. Heat falls three points because momentum without a release should ease.
- DataChina frontier models tracker
Tracker listing Hy4 as an Aug. 28 preview and watching for a full release.
- VendorMiniMax M3.1 Flash
MiniMax Oct. 19 rollout, a model release Tencent did not match this week.
Signals: The AsiaAI tracker lists Tencent Hy3, released July 6, and Hy4 preview, released Aug. 28, as the current pair. The watch item is still a full Hy4 release. None is recorded for this week.
Signals: MiniMax shipped M3.1 Flash on Oct. 19. DeepSeek open-sourced DeepInfer on Oct. 20. Tencent did not have a matching model or engine release.
Signals: Positioning 58 to 57 and heat 47 to 44. Open weights. The Yuanqi shutdown was already in the Oct. 18 score. This week adds no new Tencent fact, so the move is a fade, not a new cut.
#5 · Shanghai · positioning 47 · heat 51 · open weight
MiniMax
M3.1 Flash is on the API at $0.15 and $0.60 per million tokens. A Plotly exam tied frontier models, and a separate check found a high hallucination rate.
Why the score moved
Positioning moves from 40 to 47, and heat from 34 to 51. Positioning here is MiniMax's seat among open-weight labs that developers will actually call. A chart point dated Oct. 19 repeated the Oct. 18 score and has been removed, so this comparison starts at Oct. 18. The Oct. 18 line treated M3.1 Flash as an in-product preview without a public price. The public rollout is this week's fact.
The case for a raise is the release and one independent exam. On Oct. 19 MiniMax said it was rolling out M3.1 Flash, that an anonymous model called Space Bunny had been an early version, and that list price is $0.15 per million input tokens and $0.60 per million output tokens, with agent cost about 70 percent below the previous model 1. Plotly wrote on Oct. 20 that the released model passed 41 of 43 questions on its data-analysis exam, tying Claude Opus 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon, Muse Wonder, and GPT-6 Sol, and that the exam cost $4.09 at those prices 2. Plotly also said weights were still to come.
The case against a larger raise is reliability. VentureBeat reported that on Artificial Analysis's AA-Omniscience check, M3.1 Flash got more factual answers than DeepSeek V4.1 Flash-1017 and then, when it was wrong, almost always produced an incorrect answer rather than a refusal, which that benchmark scores as a 93 percent hallucination rate 3. That is a reception fact, not a vendor table. A model developers cannot trust on citations does not move to the front of the international board.
Seven points of positioning, not fifteen: a priced public model with one strong outside exam is a different seat than an in-app preview, and the hallucination finding is why it stays well below DeepSeek, Z.ai, and Xiaomi. Heat rises more than positioning because the launch was the international product story beside DeepSeek's ban and engine.
- VendorMiniMax M3.1 Flash
MiniMax Oct. 19 post announcing the rollout, the Space Bunny origin, the speed and cost claims, and the $0.15 / $0.60 prices.
- NewsPlotly exam
Plotly Oct. 20 writeup: 41 of 43 on its data-analysis exam, the tie with frontier models, the $4.09 cost, and weights still pending.
- NewsVentureBeat on hallucinations
VentureBeat report of the Artificial Analysis finding that wrong answers were usually confident errors.
Signals: On Oct. 19 MiniMax rolled out M3.1 Flash for agent work, coding, computer use, and cybersecurity, at $0.15 per million input tokens and $0.60 per million output tokens. It said inference is nearly three times faster and agent cost is about 70 percent lower than the prior model.
Signals: Plotly ran the released model on its data-analysis exam on Oct. 20 and said it passed 41 of 43 questions, tying Claude Opus 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon, Muse Wonder, and GPT-6 Sol, at a listed exam cost of $4.09. Weights were not out yet in that writeup.
Signals: VentureBeat reported Artificial Analysis found a 93 percent hallucination rate on its definition: when the model was not correct, it usually gave a wrong answer instead of refusing. Positioning 40 to 47 and heat 34 to 51. Open weights are the company stance; this release was API-first. The jump stops here because the reliability finding is part of the reception, not a footnote.
#6 · Beijing · positioning 41 · heat 36 · open weight
Moonshot
Kimi K3, launched in July, is still the flagship. No K3 successor shipped this week.
Why the score moved
Positioning moves from 42 to 41, and heat from 38 to 36. Positioning here is Moonshot seat as the lab behind Kimi. A chart point dated Oct. 19 repeated the Oct. 18 score and has been removed, so this comparison starts at Oct. 18.
Kimi K3 is still the flagship on the record this desk trusts. The AsiaAI tracker lists the July 16 launch and the July 27 weights, and it does not list an October flagship 1. The Oct. 18 desk already said a K3.1 API identifier was not a formal release. No launch post, price card, or independent exam this week reversed that.
What did ship was someone else model. MiniMax rolled out M3.1 Flash on Oct. 19 at a public price, and Plotly ran an exam on it the next day 2. Moonshot was not that story. A catalog row is not a release, so it does not get a raise.
One point of positioning: the July model still counts, which is why Moonshot does not fall through the floor, and the missing release is why it slips behind MiniMax, which did ship. Heat falls two points for the same reason.
- DataChina frontier models tracker
Tracker listing Kimi K3, July 16 launch and July 27 weights, as the Moonshot flagship.
- NewsPlotly exam of M3.1 Flash
Plotly Oct. 20 exam of the MiniMax model that shipped this week, which Moonshot did not match.
Signals: The AsiaAI tracker lists Kimi K3, launched July 16 with weights on July 27, as the Moonshot flagship. It does not record an October flagship.
Signals: MiniMax M3.1 Flash shipped Oct. 19 as a priced API model with an outside exam. Moonshot did not publish an equivalent release.
Signals: Positioning 42 to 41 and heat 38 to 36. Open weights. An API identifier for a K3.1 was already judged, on Oct. 18, not to be a release. That judgment stands because no launch post or independent exam arrived this week.
About this board
What you’re looking at, and how often it moves.
- What is AI Wars?
- AI Wars is Sonar Mag’s permanent scoreboard for the AI industry. It combines desk assessments of major labs with live signals from LMSYS Chatbot Arena, OpenRouter volume, coding-agent Reddit communities, open-source GitHub stars, US App Store Productivity ranks, public changelog velocity, and Polymarket prediction markets.
- How are the lab rankings decided?
- US and international labs are scored by the desk on positioning (strategic seat) and heat (near-term momentum), each from 0 to 100. Rank within each region is derived from the sum of those scores, and each company has a full analysis below the board.
- How often does AI Wars update?
- Arena, OpenRouter, Reddit visitor estimates, GitHub stars, App Store ranks, changelog feeds, and Polymarket odds refresh on page load with short CDN caching. Positioning and heat are a weekly desk pass: every company on the board gets its week’s news read carefully (product drops, funding, distribution deals, usage slips, open-weight releases), then scores, blurbs, and full analyses are updated where the footing actually moved. Each regional column shows when that side was last reviewed.